The Revision of the Non-Proliferation Treaty: Prospects and Issues

by Angelo Amante

On Thursday 29 January 2015, the sub-Committee on Security and Defence of the EP hosted a public hearing on the review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Every year, the nine nuclear states, with America and Russia leading the way, spend $100 billion for the maintenance of their nuclear armouries, demonstrating their unwillingness to renounce in the future to their nuclear might. The discussions were focused above all on the position to be assumed by the EU on the subject, stressing the responsibility of the EU in fostering the international control of nuclear arsenals. The ninth conference for the revision of the NPT will be held from 27 April to 22 May of this year, with an array of issues to be resolved. Among the most important themes to be dealt with during the forthcoming negotiations there is the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the nuclear agenda and the status of the so-called “deviant states”, that is North Korea and Iran. Moreover, the experts invited to take part in the public hearing also stressed the humanitarian aspect of nuclear disarmament, which will influence every future debate over non-proliferation.

To date, the EU has not yet been able to work out a clear and harmonic standing to be assumed in the conference. The basic position is to uphold and preserve the NPT as the cornerstone of the global non-proliferation regime. The EU considers the NPT as the essential foundation of the world non-proliferation strategy and for this reason it supports the implementation and the universalization of its three pillars, namely non-proliferation, disarmament and peaceful use of nuclear energy. The objective of the EU is to strengthen the global non-proliferation regime and to achieve a global and relevant progress on the goals enshrined in the NPT. More generally, the EU wants to promote the principles of security and stability, striking a comprehensive balance between the concerns of everyone through the upholding of the treaty. It is essential for all the European Institutions to acquire the ability to speak with one voice, assuming a clear position on the nuclear non-proliferation matter.

The Ukrainian issue, as briefly stated, is likely to have a strong impact both on the negotiations process and on the final outcome of the conference. Since the Ukrainian crisis began unfolding, Russia has attempted to leverage its nuclear weapons. The annexation of Crimea marked the peak of the Russian strategy to refer to its nuclear might as a deterrent against potential “aggressions”. Despite this, the NATO managed to avoid any attempt of Russia to introduce a cold war style nuclear rhetoric into the Ukrainian conflict. In general, the Ukrainian facts constitute a serious threat to the global nuclear order, while putting at risk the relationship between the two most powerful nuclear actors in the world, namely Russia and United States of America.

The discussion concerning North Korea and Iran is as sensitive as the one concerning Ukraine. The current non-collaborative posture of Pyongyang and Teheran blocks any possibility to achieve a global agreement on strengthened non-proliferation rules. The attempt to achieve a settlement with the Islamic Republic is particularly significant for the broader issue of nuclear disarmament. For example, both the negotiations with Iran and the attempt to strengthen the nuclear non-proliferation regime involve efforts to limit capacities for the production of nuclear weapons, with a specific focus on uranium enrichment. The dispute with Iran is therefore likely to influence the points to be raised during the NPT revision conference.

A number of states have worked to get the issue of the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons into the non-proliferation discourse, bringing it into the agenda of the NPT. Among these, there are for sure Norway, Ireland and, most notably, Austria. These states drew their attention on the inherent danger of any nuclear weapon, both in their accidental and intentional impact. These risks have been defined as unacceptable. The humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons will influence all future debates on disarmament, inside and in parallel with the NPT.