Turmoil in Germany! Stagnation in Europe?

By David Meier

German voters fundamentally changed the national power balance in last Sunday`s federal parliamentary elections. For the first time in more than 60 years right wing populists/extremists will enter the German federal parliament and for the first time three different parties with strongly conflicting views and values will probably form a coalition government with potentially dramatic repercussions for all of Europe.

 

At first glance there is nothing special about the results of the German parliamentary elections. Angela Merkel, who has been the German chancellor for 12 years, was reelected for another four year`s term. But she will only be able to govern Europe`s economic powerhouse if she succeeds in forming a coalition, which could prove more difficult than ever in the nearly 70 years of history of the Federal Republic of Germany. After a rough electoral defeat (20.5 % of the votes) Merkel`s recent coalition partner the centre-left SPD (social-democrats party of Germany) has excluded to be part of the next government.

The demise of the SPD has begun in 2009 when the last grand coalition i.e. the common government of the CDU/CSU and the SPD ended. Both are traditional catch-all parties which means that they were able to obtain at least 30 % of the votes each for decades. So it was a shock when the SPD got only 23 % of the votes in 2009, which had been its worst post war result until then. In 2013, its performance at the ballots was only slightly better with a proportion of 25.7 %.

In January 2017, the SPD nominated Martin Schulz as its frontrunner for the national parliamentary elections. Martin Schulz had been the president of the European Parliament from 2012 to 2017. During this period he somehow represented the face of the European Union to the German citizens. On the other hand he had never had a role on a national scale. His nomination blew a breath of fresh air to German democracy as a lot of citizens felt enthusiastic about him and hoped for an alternative to Merkel. This caused a spike in the polls for the SPD, a phenomenon that was called Schulz effect.  But those hopes have been blasted once and for all on Sunday.   

The delusion about the decline of the party as well as the perception of the grand coalition as a trap for the SPD are among the main reasons for its refusal of another cooperation with Merkel. However, there is another argument for an opposition role of the SPD. According to this approach grand coalitions are bad for democracy because they limit the space for controversy and the choice between alternatives, which leads to the appearance of radical views that bridge those gaps. The success of the party AFD (Alternative for Germany) in the last elections is perceived as a proof for that analysis.

 Consequently, the only coalition option on the table is a tripartite coalition between Merkel`s centre-right CDU/CSU, the libertarian FDP and the leftist and ecologist party Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. The three parties are opposed to each other due to historic hostility, conflicting interests and even partly mutually exclusive values. 

At the heart of the complex situation in the aftermath of Sunday`s national elections is the success of the AFD a right wing populist or even extremist party that ranked third in the electoral competition obtaining about 12,6 % of the votes and 94 seats in Germanys federal parliament (Bundestag). The AFD is associated with xenophobic, racist, islamophobic, anti-Semitic, anti-European, anti-American, homophobic and misogynic views and values.

Infact until Sunday Germany has been one of the last European Union member states without a radical right wing populist or extremist party being represented in its national parliament. From the „True Finns“ party in Finland to the „Golden Dawn“ party in Greece, from the British „UK Independence party“ to the Italian „Nothern League“, from Belgium`s „Vlaams Belang“ to Hungary`s Jobbik, from Marine Le Pen in Paris to Geert Wilders in The Hague, Populism and right wing Extremism are on the rise all over Europe.  Nevertheless, Germany is a special case due to two reasons: its history as well as its current role and position in the EU.

In 1933 Adolf Hitler the head of the anti-Semitic, militarist and authoritarian „NSDAP“ rose to power in the aftermath of an electoral victory. The consequences of his reign were about 60 million dead people and a devastated Europe because of World War II and an unprecedented break down of civilization exemplified by the Shoa the killing of 6 million people of Jewish origin. So it is no surprise that the return of right wing extremists to the German national parliament is a source of huge concern. The fact that a party like the AFD can even enter the parliament of modern Germany underlines the extent of Europe`s populism crisis.    

As to Germany`s nowadays position and role in the EU the country is the continents economic powerhouse, export champion and by far the member state with the highest population. Due to its economic strength, its role is to guide Europe’s path. And this strong guidance is dearly needed in a crisis ridden Europe. Crises like the Eurocrisis, the migration crisis, the (military) security crisis in the EU`s neighbourhood,  the social crisis, the aforementioned populism crisis and global challenges such as climate change, terrorism and hunger urgently need to be addressed.    

However, a tripartite coalition government of CDU/CSU, FDP and Bündnis 90/Die Grüne is highly unlikely to contribute to the solution of those crises. This is due to the conflicting and even mutually exclusive approaches of the three parties with respect to nearly all of those crises and challenges. Any compromise is capable of alienating each of the parties from their electoral basis and thus threatening their political survival.

The rise of the AFD is the underlying reason for the dilemma of the choice between no government or a weak one as its entry into the parliament has reduced the number of coalition options to one. Thus, last Sunday's election has really shaken the political landscape of Germany and could lead to stagnation in the EU at the same time as Europe needs to be as dynamic and firm as possible.