Wednesday 29 June 2016

And...Britain will leave the EU!


After the result of the Brexit Referendum published on the morning of the 24th of June 2016 (Remain 48,4% and Leave 51,6%) it is clear that Britain will leave the European Union (EU). The decision of the British people may have shocked the citizens from the 27 member-states, but the right of expression is respected by the EU leaders and EU citizens. In a joint statement made by the main EU chiefs, the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Council Donald Tusk, the Holder of the Presidency of the Council of the EU Mark Rutte and the President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz stated “In a free and democratic process, the British people have expressed their wish to leave the European Union. We regret this decision but respect it.”

Remarkably, the day after of the UK voted to leave the EU, the European leaders were unanimous on their message, there is no point to prolong the exit of Britain once people have already expressed their choice. Indeed to prolonged uncertainty on the Brexit file means also to prolong uncertainty on the markets, as well as to prolong a significant increase of feeling of insecurity on EU citizens.

For sure this was the moment that the EU leaders needed to send a message of cohesion and integration. Some EU citizens have started questioning if this is the beginning of the end of the EU project. This may be an interpretation a little too far from the reality in the EU. It is known that the EU is facing a period of big challenges with severe and different crises. The economic crisis, migration, fight against terrorism, the growth of popular racism, the increase of Euroscepticism among EU citizens…. Yet, according to EU leaders it is not time to quiet, but to think on how Europe can reshape itself.

The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, said on his first public statement “It is an historic moment for sure, this is not a moment for hysterical reactions. I want to reassure everyone that we are prepared also for this negative scenario.” Much has been expected to come out in these latest days. Though, any development plan has been known so far, which can be easily understandable since this is an unprecedented situation and caution on dealing with a new agreement is crucial to prevent further situations coming from other member states. Jean-Claude Juncker has been clear on his statements by saying that once leaving, Britain will not have “one foot in and one foot out” on its withdrawal. And that once out of the EU, the UK will have no special treatment. More recently, Donald Tusk said that Britain will not have an “à la carte” relationship with the EU if it wants to access the single market. In addition, Matteo Renzi, the Italian Prime Minister, declared in an interview that Britain cannot take only the “good things” from its exit. The EU leaders have been firm and consistent on their messages willing a smooth, quick and fair exit of Britain to both sides.

On the other hand, British politicians are currently having a difficult time finding a balance on the political ground. Scottish and North Ireland refuse to be unheard on their relationships with the EU. The unity of Great Britain can be shaked only two years after the Scottish referendum.

In addition, it seems that the “leave campaigners” had no contingency plan all this time. In fact, just days after their so expected victory they are backpedalling on promises mainly due to the uncertain outcome of the expected agreement between the UK and the EU and the apparently the high expectations of the strength and will of EU leaders on the months to come. In the meantime, the UK is facing some troubled time with political changes, markets falls, release of reports on an increasing popular racism against migrants' communities in the UK, just to mention some…

For now EU citizens and markets are expecting a more detailed plan on the future of Europe and questions about a new Treaty of an EU with 27 member states, as well as an UK-EU agreement have been asked.

It was known that Brexit wouldn’t bring nothing good to the EU beside probably the wish of reshape the EU as an awakening call. But it may reveal a much worst choice for the Great Britain.

Europe HOpes will continue to follow the events of Brexit and bring to you the most relevant debates on this matter.

Wednesday 22 June 2016

Brexit Referendum: Tomorrow, 23 June 2016!


"With one step in and one step out!" that is how the UK has been known among the others member-states since it joined the European Community in 1973. Tomorrow it seems to be an intense day to all Britons... and frankly to European Union (EU) citizens, as well. For the past months, both sides of the debate brought arguments to lead British voters to take the decision: "In or Out?". But is the British general public really prepare to vote to decide to leave or remain in the European Union? After all, during this extensive debate many speculations have been made by both, those who vote to leave or to remain in the European Union, but one thing remains true: a member states leaving the EU is unprecedented!

Voting for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU is easier than to set in motion this very much complex procedure. If tomorrow's result lead to an exit, then a sequence of unprecedented negotiation process will be needed to take place between Britain and the EU. Indeed, the article 50 of the Treaty on European Union provides a legal framework to any member state to withdraw from the Union always in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. And a leaving agreement would be initiated. In general, Britain will need to secure support from the majority of their EU population. And a leaving situation will not lead to an immediate withdraw. Yet, many questions will arise. EU mobility, for example. What are the options and opportunities of EU workers in Great Britain as an non EU-country? A Brexit would have an impact on EU students in the UK, as much as on British students willing to study abroad. On the other side, if the “Remain” vote wins tomorrow, how will be the already-complicated relation between the UK and the EU from now on? Tomorrow's polls result will definitely change the path of Europe, no matter the out come of this referendum. And Europe HOpes will continue to follow this debate!