A potential turning point for European socialists?!

By David Meier

The party conference of the SPD has authorized the opening of alliance negotiations with the CDU/CSU for another grand coalition. However, the tight voting result showcases the divisions within a party whose members will have to ratify the final coalition agreement. Meanwhile, several European governments wait for a new German government. However, the situation in Germany represents trends as regards structural change such as the demise of socialist/social democratic parties and the rise of rightist/nationalist populist parties in a lot of European democracies. The referendum of the members of the SPD could be a tipping point or accelerate the trend.

On 21 January 2018, a slim majority of  delegates (56%) of a special party conference of the SPD, the German social democrates, has authorized its party leadership to start coalition talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel`s conservative CDU/CSU. Both parties have already been partners in grand coalitions under Merkel from 2005 to 2009 and from 2013 to 2017. Since the German federal elections in September 2017, a care taker government has ruled Germany as Merkel has not been able to form a new government so far.   

The crushing election blow (20%) was only the culmination of a series of devastating election defeats (23% in 2009  and 25% in 2013) which had started after the first grand coalition between the SPD and Merkel`s CDU/CSU, both traditional catch-all parties. The demise of a traditional socialist/social democratic catch-all party is not a merely German phenomenon. In 2017, the Dutch social democratic party PvdA  (Labour Party), which had received 24,84% of the votes in the 2012 elections, only scored 5,7% at the ballots. Its worst result ever after a five-year grand coalition with Prime Minister Mark Rutte`s conservative VVD  (People`s Party for Freedom and Democracy). In France, the socialist party (PS) suffered a major blow as its front-runner for the presidential elections, Benoît Hamon, only ranked 5th in the first round with 6,36% of the votes and no access to the second round, whereas the candidate of the PS in 2012 François Hollande had ranked first in the first round (28,63%) and in the second one (51,64%) and had consequently become president. The second devastating defeat for the PS was that the PS electorate for the National Assembly elections shrunk from 29,35% (280 seats) in 2012 to only 7,44% (30 seats) in 2017. In all of the three countries the decline of the socialist/social democratic catch-all parties coincided with the rise and successful results of rightist, nationalist and populist anti-EU as well as anti-refugee parties, such as the AFD in Germany, the PVV in the Netherlands and the Front National in France. 

The SPD´s result in the 2017 elections was the worst in the party`s history. Against this backdrop the SPD`s front-runner Martin Schulz, former President of the European Parliament,  announced on the evening of the 2017 election defeat that he and his party will not form a government with Merkel. He argued that the SPD must revolve as the leading opposition party in order to recover successfully.

According to him, this was not only essential for his party but also for German democracy, as with the AFD for the first time in decades a rightist and nationalist populist party had not only succeeded to attain the 5 % treshold  necessary to join the Bundestag (the German lower house of parliament) but it had even surpassed it largely by reaching a percentage of about 12% and ranking third. Schulz blamed the lack of controversy between both traditional catch-all parties for the success of the AFD as the grand coalition had left German citizens without any credible alternatives among traditional parties. Therefore, he claimed the SPD must take the lead of the parliamentary opposition in order to avoid that the AFD would become the leading opposition party in the Bundestag and blossom even more. Schulz referred to the example of Austria, where the polls and election results of the rightist and nationalist populist FPÖ had increased during several grand coalitions between the social democrats (SPÖ) and the conservatives ÖVP. After his election victory in the 2017 elections, the ÖVP´s front-runner Kurz even chose to form a government with the FPÖ.

In the aftermath of Schulz`announcement that the SPD would not join another government under the leadership of chancellor Merkel the CDU/CSU opened talks with the liberal FDP and the ecologist green party Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. Due to differing values, visions and and goals those talks failed. After that the pressure on the SPD to revisit its pledge not to form a coalition with the CDU/CSU rose considerably. Thus, the party leadership of both parties started exploratory talks. However, after Schultz promised not to form a coalition with Merkel a large part of the members of the SPD was highly critical to open those talks. Therefore, the party`s leadership stressed that the negotiations would be open and unbiased as to the result. Some members of the party leadership emphasized that the SPD could push through a number of major campaign promises such as higher taxes for the rich, an egalitarian health insurance scheme instead of the current bipartite public and private health insurance scheme and the protection of the rights of refugees. In January 2018, the party leadership of the SPD and the CDU/CSU published a findings document for the exploratory negotiations. A lot of members of the SPD complained that the findings document did not comprise any reference to major SPD campaign promises such as higher taxes for the rich, an egalitarian health insurance scheme etc.,and that the CDU/CSU had even been able to carry through a very tight approach on refugees.

In light of this delusion, the SPD`s party leadership had to pledge to try to push through a more egalitarian health insurance scheme, the prohibition of unjustified temporary work contracts and a hardship provision as regards family reunification of refugees with subsidiary protection status (such as the majority of Syrian refugees). All which in order to get the votes of 56% of the delegates for the opening of coalition talks at the special party conference. The coalition talks have already started in January and shall be finished on 4 February 2018. Afterwards all members of the SPD will have to ratify the final coalition agreement. Due to the tight voting at the party conference and the manifest delusion of a lot of party members with the prospect of another grand coalition it is not yet certain if both catch-all parties will actually form a coalition.

The leadership of both parties argue that the only alternative to another grand coalition would be early elections resulting in an impasse similar to the current one. Chancellor Merkel has been urging the people that the world is not waiting for Germany  to form a government as the country has already been four months without an elected government which is unique in Germany`s history. Nevertheless, in recent years many other European states such as Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium needed much more time, up to a whole year, in order to elect a government.

Additionally, the opponents of another grand coalition note that early elections are not the only alternative as Merkel could also lead a minority government. Furthermore, they contend that a minority government being a novelty for the German political culture could be even beneficial to the stability and vitality of the German democracy as it would enhance the controversy between traditional parties and thus underline the differences and similarities between them enabling citizens to choose between real alternatives.

Merkel and Schulz refuse this view, arguing that a crisis-stricken Europe needs a firm German government to reform the EU. Indeed, the first point of the findings document of the exploratory talks between CDU/CSU and the SPD refers to a different German EU policy and a EU reform effort together with and to a certain extent according to the ideas of the French president Emmanuel Macron, i.e. with a shared Eurozone budget and a European finance minister who could control national budgets. Moreover, a lot of European heads of state or government, such as Macron and the Italian Prime Minister Gentiloni, expressed their relief about the SPD`s party conference`s decision to open the coalition talks.     

On the other hand, Germany would not be the only EU country being ruled by a minority government as this approach currently exists in several member states such as Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Sweden. Besides, it is questionable wether another grand coalition government in Germany and consequently a push for an EU reform according to Macron`s template are a panacea to the EU`s multiple crises.

The political systems of many member states have been changing dramatically during the last decade. The demise of socialist/social democratic parties and the rise of rightist, nationalist and populist forces are only the most obvious symptoms. In some countries such as Austria, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary those populists are even at least part of the government. Other less palpable consequences of this change are the significant losses in popularity for conservative catch-all parties, the emergence of new political movements such as La République en Marche! in France, Cinque Stelle in Italy and Podemos and Ciudadanos in Spain. What all those novelties have in common is that it becomes more and more difficult to form governments. The next important parliamentary election in a member state will be held in Italy in March and the polls suggest that it will be very hard to elect a government afterwards.

But what are the underlying reasons for this radical change in the political landscape of Europe? Some observers have identified the dominance of neoliberal economic and social policies as the root of all evil. Since the fall of the Iron Curtain a lot of former leftist parties such as the socialist and social democratic parties have shifted to the center, or even to the right and have adopted the neoliberal approach which has become a kind of common ground of the political elites in Europe. As a consequence, there was less room for controversial debates about fundamental societal, economic and social decisions. Yet, controversy, debate and the choice between real alternatives are essential features of democracies. In most western European states, the rightist, nationalist and populist parties have filled the void left by socialist and social democratic parties. In some eastern European countries such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Hungary there are no traditionally strong leftist parties for historical reasons, so it was even easier for populist forces to close the gap in the societal debate.

Nevertheless, there are also developments going in another direction. Since the election of its new leader Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, the British Labour Party has shifted to the left and in June 2016 it received nearly as much votes as the ruling conservative Tory party and currently it is even leading in the polls. In Portugal, António Costa and his socialist party, PS, refused in 2015 to tolerate a conservative government and formed a minority government accepted  by other leftist and green parties. They adopted measures aimed at alleviating the consequences of the austerity policies imposed by the former government and European creditors.

SPD members will have to choose which path to follow. A „yes“ vote to the coalition agreement would provide Germany and the EU with a firm German government, and probably it would be easier to push through some reforms of the Eurozone. On the other hand, it is questionable if those reforms are fit for solving the current crises or if they will even enhance them. The Austrian, Dutch  and French examples suggest that another grand coalition, i.e. the continuation of the neoliberal dominance among the traditional political parties, threatens to create further room for rightist, nationalist and populist forces. Maybe a „no“ vote could be a turning point to follow the successful British and Portuguese examples.