Is instability the new normal in EU member states?

 By David Meier

From: Presidenza della Repubblica Italiana

1 June 2018 was a historic day as a government in Italy was sworn in while another one in Spain was ousted. Only two days later, on 3 June 2018, parliamentary elections in Slovenia resulted in a complex constellation as the party winning the most votes seems to be isolated among potential coalition partners. All three events were just the climax of a series of national elections resulting in complicated political situations without a clear perspective, since the formation of a stable government. The European Union (EU) and the European youth take center stage concerning the underlying reasons for this development and its repercussions.

On June 1, the political landscape of the EU changed dramatically as the Italian parties Lega Nord (Northern League) and Movimento cinque stelle (Five Star Movement) formed a coalition government; while in Spain the Spanish Socialist opposition leader Sanchez won a no- confidence vote against the incumbent conservative prime minister Rajoy.

The inauguration as Italian prime minister of the non-affiliated law professor and lawyer Giuseppe Conte, who is close to the Movimento cinque stelle, marked the end of an emotional rollercoaster that had unfolded after the Italian parliamentary elections. The election result was a blow to the governing Partito Democratico (Socialists), and a triumph for the Movimento cinque stelle being the single party with the most votes (about a third) and the Lega Nord that surprisingly topped the conservative and far right electoral alliance of three right-wing parties. This alliance was the most successful of all electoral alliances.

Both coalition parties are considered populist parties but their programmes strongly differ. The Lega Nord is known as a eurosceptic and xenophobic party that originally advocated for the secession of northern Italy from the rest of Italy, in order to create a new state called Padania with Milano as its capital instead of Rome which is anathema to them. By contrast, Movimento cinque stelle focuses on ecology, direct democracy, and an anti graft as well as anti nepotism stance. However, both parties do also have some points in common, e.g. both reject the euro as Italy`s currency and fiscal discipline and austerity, imposed by the EU, that are attached to it. Therefore, many fear that it will be a eurosceptic government.

The coalition talks took three months, a period unprecedented in Italy`s history. Both parties argued about which parties would be part of the new government and who would lead it. In the end they decided that only Lega Nord and Movimento cinque stelle will participate in the coalition without the right wing allies of the Lega Nord. Instead of chosing one of the two party leaders Luigi Di Maio (Movimento cinque stelle) and Matteo Salvini (Lega Nord) as Prime Minister, they chose Conte.

In Spain, Mariano Rajoy, was reelected as Spanish prime minister in October 2016. However, his conservative Partido Popular did not dispose of a majority in Parliament and he did not succeed to find partners willing to form a coalition with him. As similar situations had occured in two election held very shortly before (December 2015 and June 2016), Rajoy was elected as head of a minority government with the support of the Socialists.

After a verdict of a Spanish court against former high ranking Partido Popular politicians for corruption charges and the judges expressed disbelieve of Rajoy`s claim that the top of the national Partido Popular was not involved in the scandal or did not know about it, Sanchez initiated a no-confidence vote against Rajoy. He won it by forming a short time alliance with the left wing party Podemos (We can) along with some regional and even separatist parties.

In Slovenia,
the Conservative opposition party Slovenska Demokratska Stranka (Slovenian Democratic Party) and its leader Janez Janša who campaigned for an anti-immigrant agenda got the most votes in the national elections (24,9%), improving their result considerably compared to the 2014 elections (20,7%). All 6 center-left and left wing parties represented in parliament Lista Marjana Šarca (List of Marjan Šarec; 12,7%), Socialni Demokrati (Social Democrats; 9,9%), Stranka Modernega Centra (Modern Centre Party; 9,8%), Levica (Left; 9,3%), Stranka Alenke Bratušek (Party of Alenka Bratušek; 5,1%) and Demokratična Stranka Upokojencev Slovenije (Democratic Pensioners' Party of Slovenia; 4,9%) have publicly ruled out to join a government under the Slovenska Demokratska Stranka. Thus, basically two options are on the table. Slovenska Demokratska Stranka could form a minority government with other right wing parties such as Nova Slovenija - Krščanskih Demokratov (New Slovenia - Christian Democrats; 7,1%) and Slovenska Nacionalna Stranka (Slovenian National Party; 4,2%). However such a coaliton would need the toleration of at least one of the center-left and left wing parties mentioned above. So, a centre-to-centre-left coalition consisting of 6 parties is more probable but due to the high number of participants its formation will likely be hard as well.
Obviously both events - Conte`s inauguration and the successfull no-confidence vote against Rajoy - are very dramatic. It is a coincidence that they occured exactly the same day, but they confirm some general trends in EU member states, as the situation in Slovenia does: knife-edge elections, fragmented parliaments, long lasting coalition talks and untypical governments, such as minority governments or those composed of (a high number of) parties, representing very diverse or even contradictory interests and values. Those trends do not necessarily result in chaos, yet they could be fertile ground for instability.

In recent years, many European states such as Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, the Czech Republic and Germany needed as much time as Italy or even more(a whole year), in order to elect a government. At the moment minority governments are ruling in Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Sweden. In Germany the great coalition between the conservative and socialist catch-all parties has just been prolonged for another 4 year`s term as no alternative more coherent coalition could be formed. Last years‘ elections in Austria and the Netherlands lead to the end of the great coalitions that had hitherto ruled in those countries.

Those trends are caused by a shift in the national political systems of the member states. Due to this development, the political landscape is much more plural since the number of political parties representing the citizens in Parliament has risen sharply. This process has been accelerated significantly by two important crises: the financial crisis and the migration crisis.

As a consequence of the financial crisis, the social development in several European states (especially in the south) has not only stagnated, but decreased. Young Europeans are among the most affected people as youth unemployment is tremendous in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy. The refrain of the Italian pop song ``Malinconia`` published some years ago reads: ``Da qui se ne vanno tutti``, which means everyone is leaving from here. It is the description of a newly real phenomenon. The phenomenon of the exodus of the Italian youth to other member states to earn a living there. In the wake of these bad economic and social conditions, many people - especially the young ones - have lost their confidence in the established political forces and turned to new ones, such as Podemos and Ciudadanos in Spain or Movimento cinque stelle in Italy.

The repercussions of the financial crisis have been severed by austerity policies imposed on heavily indebted countries (such as Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy) by European institutions and northern lender states such as Germany, the Netherlands and Finland. In a nutshell, the financial crisis has created a division between European people as the ones in the south are angry about the lack of solidarity from the northern countries at the same time that the ones in the north are anxious and angry about bailing out southern countries.

The unease within European societies created by the social and financial crises has been enhanced by right-wing populist and conservative parties, who have exploited xenophobia and prejudice towards refugees. This has lead to the shift to the right of the public debate and the ``fortress Europe`` approach, a policy of blocking any entrance to Europe for refugees. This is now even pursued by mainstream forces in EU member states and institutions. Matteo Salvini, Italy`s new interior minister, confirmed this course by rejecting any entrance to the lifeboat Aquarius that had rescued more than 600 refugees from drowning. At least the new Spanish government under Sanchez took another decision by inviting the Aquarius to Valencia. Also in the realm of the migration crisis there is an argument about European solidarity as most refugees enter in Italy and Greece, as well as other European member states, in particular the ones in the EU`s east reject to support those southern member states.

On the one hand both fundamental EU crises, the financial and social; and on the other hand the migration crisis, have fuelled the rise of mostly xenophobic and eurosceptic right-wing populist parties. As well of new center and left parties leading to more plural, but also more fragmented parliaments. This can result in fragile, undecisive and self-destructive governments in addition to a more creative and compromising approach such as minority governments that have to form voting alliances within parliament for any issue. Consequently, the new situation could harm democracy and the European project, but in some circumstances it could also revive them. The prerequisite of a good outcome for Europe is more solidarity as to both fundamental crises.

More than ever, the European youth has a crucial role to play! They are among the ones who suffer the most from the financial crisis so it is not surprising that they are driving the shift of the political landscape. Young Europeans are among the most important supporters of parties like the xenophobic Front National in France or other new players such as Movimento cinque stelle. On the contrary, in the case of the Brexit vote the referendum in the UK on the question of leaving or not the EU, it was the lack of participation of young voters that lead to the chaotic Brexit scenario.

So there is a need to understand that young Europeans must be active in order to avoid chaos and improve their own situation. However this will not be successful if they support parties that only scapegoat refugees without offering any realistic solutions to existing problems. The European youth must push existing parties to tackle their hardship instead. This could be realised by creating or supporting new political forces that are really aimed at increasing solidarity within and among member states.